Time series graphics
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Time series graphics

Exploratory analysis

Line plots

Line plots are the first visual aid in time series data analysis. T
check time series characteristics and regularity
outliers
interpolation errors
…holes!
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We often have datasets with too many time series to be plotted together
In this case, we can rely on quantile plots or box-plots

Scatter plots

A scatter plot can be used to visually assess the dependence of the target yty_t  from exogenous inputs/features xi,tx_{i, t}.
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Embeddings

Time embedding is helpful to see whether one can reduce the variance of segments in the time series to be predicted.
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What is wrong with these time series of power measurements?
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Power measurements from MV stations in Kenya. Top: heatmap embedded as daytime-day. Bottom: embedded time series plots.
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Animations

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Probabilistic predictions

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Left: predicted quantiles. Right: 100 different scenarios
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Left: a stochastic scenario tree obtained from the scenarios. Right: graph representation of the tree
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Model diagnostics

Since we are usually interested in more than one step ahead forecasts, we need good ways to visualize our model performances in more than one dimension.
Given a loss l(yt+h,y^t,t+h)l(y_{t+h}, \hat{y}_{t, t+h}), where hh is the number of steps ahead (forecasting horizon), and y^t,t+h \hat{y}_{t, t+h} stands for the prediction done at time t for the step t+h, we can decide to investigate the loss as a function of h.
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A loss function binned for time of the prediction and forecast’s hour ahead.
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Quantile loss functions for different quantile levels and different step ahead.
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Reliability plot for different quantile levels and different step ahead
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